The shortage is real and tightening—especially in primary care. National models still project a shortfall of up to ~86,000 physicians by 2036, driven by simultaneous aging of the population and the workforce. Roughly two in five practicing physicians are 55 or older, so retirements loom even as demand rises. Clinicians themselves don’t expect relief soon; recent surveys show broad skepticism that the situation will improve over the next decade.
Pipeline signals are mixed. The 2025 Match set records for positions offered and ultimately filled after SOAP, including more than 20,000 primary-care slots, yet initial vacancies and the scramble to fill them point to persistent maldistribution—by specialty and geography—rather than simple supply growth. Rural and non-metro regions bear the brunt of the gap.
On causes, burnout and workload intensification are accelerating exits, particularly in primary care and rural practice. Compensation differentials continue to nudge graduates toward subspecialties, while some hospital systems report longer time-to-fill even for well-incentivized primary-care roles. The result is longer waits, referral bottlenecks, and rising use of locums in hard-hit markets.
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